Pessimism Takes Hold

Back in May, before the negotiations on leaving the EU got underway, I wrote that the differences between the UK and the EU need not be insuperable.

The EU had adopted an approach to the talks that would make finding the necessary trade offs difficult. I warned of the difficulties caused by the long period of not talking to each other; the had EU insisted that there would be no informal talks, no probing, no sounding out in advance of formal notification and that all negotiations would take place within the prescribed framework. As a result, I thought, the two sides had developed their understanding of the issues in separate bubbles.

When Mr Juncker accused the prime minister of being on a different planet, he should have realised that both parties were on different planets and needed to invent some quick form of space travel.

I made the case here on Left Foot Forward:

https://leftfootforward.org/2017/05/how-deep-is-the-may-juncker-divide-and-can-it-be-bridged/

Once the talks got going, my concerns deepened. I am acutely aware that the EU is not run by disinterested experts but it has a democratic structure where the centre right has been in power for a number of years. As I explained in this piece on Left Foot Forward:

https://leftfootforward.org/2017/06/brexit-will-be-negotiated-by-europes-tories/

Not only is the EU negotiation mandate inconsistent and illogical, as you might expect from an agreement thrashed out by 27 parties, but it is defensive and negative. It sets out what the EU27 don't want but has little to offer on what they do. The idea that both sides should be aware that they have interests in common in finding a solution that serves all Europeans, those who remain as well as those who are leaving.

The detail is here in Left Foot Forward:

https://leftfootforward.org/2017/06/what-does-the-eu-want-from-the-brexit-negotiations/